Can station-area land values pay for Burnham's HS2?
Andy Burnham wants rising land values around HS2 stations to generate £36 billion of the line's £102.7 billion cost.
We measured those land values across 15.4 million transactions: the premiums were real in some locations but absent in others, concentrated in areas with independent growth drivers, and reversed entirely at the one station where construction is already under way.
Andy Burnham's pledge to revive HS2's northern leg between Birmingham and Manchester, if he becomes Prime Minister, rests on a financing idea: that the increase in land values around new stations can help pay for the railway. Under Burnham's proposal, approximately £36 billion could be raised through land-value capture mechanisms applied to station-area property.
The estimated cost of HS2 Phase 2 is approximately £102.7 billion. Whether station-area land values have historically risen enough to make that arithmetic plausible is a question that can be tested against open government data, which is what this Ranking Atlas study does.
Ranking Atlas analysed 16 years of HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, covering every residential property transaction in England and Wales from Q1 2010 to Q1 2026. We indexed quarterly median prices for nine station-area postcode groups against the England-wide median, measured from each area's HS2 route announcement date.
This is a companion study to our earlier analysis of post-cancellation property prices near HS2 stations, which found that cancelled areas outperformed England after the northern leg was axed. A separate study applies the same open-data methodology to the private rental market, measuring pet-friendly availability across 15,522 UK rental listings two months after the Renters' Rights Act.
The question here is different: did station-area prices rise faster than England before cancellation, and if so, by how much?
Station areas grew faster than england after route announcements
Five of the seven cancelled station areas recorded a positive anticipation premium. Toton, the planned East Midlands hub on the eastern leg, recorded the largest at +40.5 percentage points. Manchester Piccadilly was second at +31.2 points.
We define the "anticipation premium" as the difference in percentage-point growth between a station area and England over the window from route announcement to Q3 2023 (the last full quarter before cancellation). A positive premium means the station area outgrew England; a negative premium means it underperformed.
Phase 1 stations (Old Oak Common, Birmingham Curzon Street) use a Q1 2012 baseline, when the Phase 1 route was confirmed. Phase 2 stations use Q1 2013, when the Phase 2 route was announced on 28 January 2013.
Anticipation premium by station area
Difference in percentage-point growth between station area and England, route announcement to Q3 2023. Positive values indicate the station area outgrew England.
- Toton, largest premium (cancelled)
- Cancelled station
- Active station (Old Oak Common)
Show the data
| Station area | Status | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Toton / East Midlands hub | Cancelled | +40.5pp |
| Manchester Piccadilly | Cancelled | +31.2pp |
| Sheffield Midland | Cancelled | +20.2pp |
| Manchester Airport | Cancelled | +10.4pp |
| Leeds | Cancelled | +7.6pp |
| Staffs corridor | Cancelled | -4.0pp |
| Old Oak Common | Active | -4.8pp |
| Crewe | Cancelled | -7.2pp |
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Q1 2010 to Q1 2026 (Open Government Licence v3.0). Ranking Atlas analysis.
Two cancelled areas, Crewe and the Staffordshire corridor, underperformed England. Old Oak Common, the active London super-hub, also underperformed over the announcement-to-cancellation window.
The eastern leg recorded the largest premiums
The three eastern-leg station areas, all cancelled in 2023, collectively outperformed England by between 7.6 and 40.5 percentage points over the announcement-to-cancellation window.
Eastern leg: indexed price growth vs England
Quarterly median price indexed to 100 at Q1 2013 (Phase 2 route announcement). Half-yearly data points shown. Dashed vertical line: cancellation (Q3 2023).
- Toton / East Midlands hub
- Sheffield Midland
- Leeds
- England
Show the data
| Quarter | Toton / east midlands hub | Sheffield midland | Leeds | England |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10 | 94.3 | 102.1 | 96.5 | 102.2 |
| Q3 10 | 104.9 | 111.7 | 109.4 | 104.4 |
| Q1 11 | 101.9 | 112.8 | 102.2 | 96.9 |
| Q3 11 | 103.4 | 108.7 | 108.4 | 100.8 |
| Q1 12 | 98.1 | 95.3 | 100.7 | 98.0 |
| Q3 12 | 102.3 | 97.4 | 100.2 | 103.9 |
| Q1 13 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Q3 13 | 105.7 | 99.5 | 98.1 | 106.4 |
| Q1 14 | 98.1 | 97.4 | 92.9 | 102.5 |
| Q3 14 | 109.4 | 112.8 | 103.3 | 110.9 |
| Q1 15 | 110.2 | 114.9 | 101.1 | 109.1 |
| Q3 15 | 122.6 | 100.0 | 108.4 | 117.6 |
| Q1 16 | 122.6 | 112.8 | 103.3 | 116.0 |
| Q3 16 | 128.3 | 107.2 | 123.9 | 123.2 |
| Q1 17 | 124.5 | 117.9 | 126.0 | 121.8 |
| Q3 17 | 135.8 | 119.0 | 129.1 | 128.9 |
| Q1 18 | 128.3 | 115.9 | 128.0 | 126.1 |
| Q3 18 | 137.4 | 126.2 | 139.4 | 133.1 |
| Q1 19 | 128.3 | 124.1 | 144.5 | 126.1 |
| Q3 19 | 146.0 | 120.5 | 139.4 | 134.5 |
| Q1 20 | 146.4 | 128.2 | 129.1 | 131.9 |
| Q3 20 | 157.7 | 147.2 | 144.6 | 140.1 |
| Q1 21 | 171.1 | 128.2 | 138.1 | 159.7 |
| Q3 21 | 169.8 | 128.5 | 154.8 | 137.3 |
| Q1 22 | 178.1 | 146.2 | 149.2 | 148.5 |
| Q3 22 | 194.0 | 133.3 | 154.4 | 163.6 |
| Q1 23 | 192.5 | 143.6 | 147.7 | 154.1 |
| Q3 23 | 200.2 | 179.9 | 167.3 | 159.7 |
| Q1 24 | 203.4 | 155.4 | 154.9 | 151.3 |
| Q3 24 | 188.3 | 179.5 | 183.2 | 161.6 |
| Q1 25 | 188.7 | 167.4 | 170.4 | 168.1 |
| Q3 25 | 196.2 | 169.2 | 168.6 | 159.7 |
| Q1 26 | 196.2 | 164.1 | 165.2 | 154.1 |
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Q1 2010 to Q1 2026 (Open Government Licence v3.0). Ranking Atlas analysis.
Toton's median price doubled over the decade. In Q1 2013, the median transaction around the planned East Midlands hub was £132,500. By Q3 2023 it had reached £265,250, a 100.2% increase. England grew 59.7% over the same period.
Toton Q1 2013 median: £132,500. Q3 2023 median: £265,250. Growth: 100.2%. England growth: 59.7%. Premium: +40.5pp.
Sheffield Midland-area properties grew 79.9% against England's 59.7%, a premium of +20.2 points. Leeds grew 67.3%, outpacing England by 7.6 points. All three eastern-leg groups maintained quarterly transaction counts above 50 throughout the period.
The eastern leg was cancelled alongside the western leg in October 2023. Since cancellation, all three eastern-leg areas have seen modest price declines of 1 to 9 percentage points. The anticipation premium accumulated over a decade has not reversed, but it is no longer growing.
Western cancelled areas show a mixed picture
The four cancelled western-leg stations split into two pairs. Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Airport outperformed England. Crewe and the Staffordshire corridor underperformed.
Western cancelled areas: indexed price growth vs England
Quarterly median price indexed to 100 at Q1 2013 (Phase 2 route announcement). Half-yearly data points shown. Dashed vertical line: cancellation (Q3 2023).
- Manchester Piccadilly
- Manchester Airport
- Crewe
- Staffs corridor
- England
Show the data
| Quarter | Manchester piccadilly | Manchester airport | Crewe | Staffs corridor | England |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10 | 104.5 | 106.3 | 103.8 | 93.7 | 102.2 |
| Q3 10 | 109.1 | 104.7 | 103.4 | 93.8 | 104.4 |
| Q1 11 | 97.7 | 100.9 | 94.5 | 93.1 | 96.9 |
| Q3 11 | 107.3 | 105.5 | 99.2 | 100.0 | 100.8 |
| Q1 12 | 94.5 | 88.0 | 98.7 | 93.4 | 98.0 |
| Q3 12 | 100.7 | 99.3 | 99.2 | 106.2 | 103.9 |
| Q1 13 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Q3 13 | 109.1 | 108.0 | 102.5 | 100.0 | 106.4 |
| Q1 14 | 109.1 | 105.3 | 98.5 | 98.8 | 102.5 |
| Q3 14 | 118.7 | 108.0 | 107.6 | 109.4 | 110.9 |
| Q1 15 | 121.8 | 110.8 | 104.2 | 95.9 | 109.1 |
| Q3 15 | 128.2 | 128.2 | 109.7 | 115.0 | 117.6 |
| Q1 16 | 140.9 | 110.1 | 105.9 | 101.6 | 116.0 |
| Q3 16 | 140.9 | 128.7 | 120.8 | 115.6 | 123.2 |
| Q1 17 | 142.7 | 124.4 | 112.5 | 124.5 | 121.8 |
| Q3 17 | 144.1 | 140.4 | 120.3 | 125.3 | 128.9 |
| Q1 18 | 154.5 | 117.4 | 120.3 | 128.8 | 126.1 |
| Q3 18 | 154.5 | 149.7 | 127.1 | 133.4 | 133.1 |
| Q1 19 | 145.5 | 126.9 | 119.5 | 135.0 | 126.1 |
| Q3 19 | 110.9 | 166.3 | 135.6 | 131.3 | 134.5 |
| Q1 20 | 188.0 | 123.3 | 131.4 | 134.4 | 131.9 |
| Q3 20 | 166.8 | 166.7 | 133.1 | 134.4 | 140.1 |
| Q1 21 | 180.9 | 185.3 | 155.9 | 156.3 | 159.7 |
| Q3 21 | 170.2 | 156.5 | 152.5 | 141.7 | 137.3 |
| Q1 22 | 207.2 | 145.7 | 152.5 | 143.8 | 148.5 |
| Q3 22 | 192.6 | 176.1 | 163.1 | 154.0 | 163.6 |
| Q1 23 | 181.8 | 162.8 | 149.2 | 150.0 | 154.1 |
| Q3 23 | 190.9 | 170.0 | 152.5 | 155.7 | 159.7 |
| Q1 24 | 178.2 | 176.0 | 146.4 | 150.2 | 151.3 |
| Q3 24 | 272.7 | 188.9 | 150.4 | 162.5 | 161.6 |
| Q1 25 | 204.5 | 188.9 | 161.0 | 167.2 | 168.1 |
| Q3 25 | 181.8 | 176.8 | 158.5 | 156.2 | 159.7 |
| Q1 26 | 194.5 | 162.5 | 161.0 | 155.9 | 154.1 |
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Q1 2010 to Q1 2026 (Open Government Licence v3.0). Ranking Atlas analysis.
Manchester Piccadilly-area prices grew 90.9% between Q1 2013 and Q3 2023, compared with 59.7% for England. Much of this reflects Manchester city centre's broader regeneration, not HS2 alone. The +31.2 percentage point premium is the second largest in the study.
Manchester Airport districts (M22, SK9) grew 70.0%, beating England by 10.4 points. These postcodes include Wilmslow and parts of Bramhall, areas with strong independent price momentum.
Crewe, the planned northern hub, grew only 52.5% against England's 59.7%. The Staffordshire corridor grew 55.7%. Both underperformed by 4 to 7 percentage points. These are lower-value markets where HS2 route proximity did not translate into faster growth relative to the national median.
Post-cancellation, the pattern flipped. As our companion cancellation study showed, Crewe outperformed England by +9.1 percentage points after the northern leg was axed, the strongest post-cancellation performance of any station area.
Active construction sites diverged sharply
Old Oak Common, the London super-hub still under active construction, grew 58.0% between Q1 2012 and Q3 2023. England grew 62.9% over the same window, giving Old Oak Common a negative anticipation premium of -4.8 percentage points.
Since Q3 2023, Old Oak Common's own median price has fallen a further 18.8%, from £517,500 to £420,000. This is a nominal fall in the area's prices, not a comparison against England. The combined effect of construction blight and broader London softening means that even after a 58% rise between 2012 and 2023, prices in the area now stand roughly 28% above their Q1 2012 level, while England has grown 62.9% over the announcement-to-cancellation window alone and has continued to grow since.
Old Oak Common Q1 2012 median: £327,500. Q3 2023 median: £517,500. Q1 2026 median: £420,000. Announcement-to-cancellation growth: 58.0%. England: 62.9%. Premium: -4.8pp. Since Q3 2023: -18.8%.
Birmingham Curzon Street recorded a +80.9pp premium, but with only 41 transactions in its Q1 2012 baseline quarter and 19 in Q1 2026, the figure is unreliable. The existing cancellation study excluded Birmingham for the same reason. We report it for completeness but exclude it from headline claims.
What the premium is worth in current prices
At today's prices, the anticipation premium is worth an illustrative £105,365 per median home near Toton, £66,865 near Manchester Piccadilly, and £32,349 near Sheffield Midland. These figures describe what the historic growth differential looks like in pound terms. They do not predict future uplift from reinstatement.
To translate the anticipation premium into a per-home figure, we multiply each station area's premium (as a ratio) by its current Q1 2026 median price. This is illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast. It shows what the historic growth differential represents if applied to a home at today's median value.
| Station area | Growth | England | Premium | Current median | Per-home £ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toton / East Midlands hub | 100.2% | 59.7% | +40.5pp | £260,000 | £105,365 |
| Manchester Piccadilly | 90.9% | 59.7% | +31.2pp | £214,000 | £66,865 |
| Sheffield Midland | 79.9% | 59.7% | +20.2pp | £160,000 | £32,349 |
| Manchester Airport | 70.0% | 59.7% | +10.4pp | £301,000 | £31,234 |
| Leeds | 67.3% | 59.7% | +7.6pp | £160,000 | £12,168 |
| Staffs corridor | 55.7% | 59.7% | -4.0pp | £249,500 | -£9,958 |
| Old Oak Common | 58.0% | 62.9% | -4.8pp | £420,000 | -£20,336 |
| Crewe | 52.5% | 59.7% | -7.2pp | £190,000 | -£13,680 |
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data, Q1 2010 to Q1 2026 (Open Government Licence v3.0). Ranking Atlas analysis.
The £36 billion Question
Under Burnham's proposal, if the pledge becomes policy, approximately £36 billion of HS2 Phase 2's estimated £102.7 billion cost would be funded through land-value capture. The mechanism assumes that station-area property values will rise after reinstatement, and that a portion of that uplift can be taxed or levied to fund construction.
The historic data shows that anticipation premiums were real, but unevenly distributed. Five of seven cancelled station areas outgrew England. Two did not. The premiums ranged from +7.6 to +40.5 percentage points, with the strongest performance concentrated in areas (Manchester city centre, Toton, Sheffield) that had independent growth drivers alongside HS2 proximity.
Converting per-home premiums into an aggregate requires dwelling counts per postcode district from the Valuation Office Agency. Even without that total, the pattern is clear: the strongest premiums clustered in areas that were already growing fast for other reasons, while the locations most dependent on HS2 as a growth catalyst (Crewe, Staffordshire) showed no premium at all.
Several factors complicate a direct comparison between historic premiums and future capture revenue. Construction blight, visible in the Old Oak Common data, depresses values during the build phase. The anticipation premium accumulated over a decade, but capture mechanisms would need to operate over the construction and early-operation period. Markets that already priced in HS2 once may not do so a second time after cancellation and reinstatement.
“The anticipation premium is real and measurable in the Land Registry data. But it was concentrated in places that were already growing, absent in the places most dependent on HS2 as a catalyst, and wiped out where construction actually began. A funding model built on capturing that uplift would need to produce a more consistent pattern than the one the data shows.”
Daniel Grainger, Ranking Atlas
Download the data
The full quarterly median price series for all nine station areas and England, indexed from Q1 2010 to Q1 2026, with transaction counts per quarter.
hs2-land-value-capture.csv
Quarterly medians, transaction counts, and indexed values for 9 station groups and England, Q1 2010 to Q1 2026.
Citation: Ranking Atlas, "Can Station-Area Land Values Pay for Burnham's HS2?", July 2026. Source data: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data (open government licence).